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Antarctic Ice Sheet 2024 to 2025 melt season: Fast start, early end

Melting on the Antarctic Ice Sheet for the 2024 to 2025 season began with above average melt extents in all regions, but melt extent dropped to nearly zero or below average from February 1 to March 15. Net accumulation of snow, part of the ice sheet’s surface mass balance, was far above average for the year ending in February 2025. Thus, extensive snowfall helped reduce the ice sheet’s net contribution to sea level rise for this period.

Current conditions

After setting records in December and January for melt extent in the 47-year satellite record, melt extents dropped abruptly by early February when conditions over the Antarctic Peninsula cooled. Overall, the number of melt days exceeded the 1991 to 2020 long-term average by approximately 10 days in the Larsen C Ice Shelf area, 15 days in the Fimbul Ice Shelf area, and over 30 days along the eastern side of the Amery Ice Shelf. Also notable were above average melt days in the West, Shackleton, and Totten Ice Shelf areas. The Sulzberger and Ross Ice Shelves were among the few areas with below average melt days for the austral summer season. Extensive ponding apparent in January in satellite images on the Larsen B remnant, known as Scar Inlet Ice Shelf, and northern Larsen C, all refroze in February; however, ponding and some surface melt flow were still visible on the Amery and Roi Baudouin Ice Shelves into March, although with a frozen surface at that point.

Colleagues at the University of Grenoble in France map daily melt extent using a different passive microwave sensor, the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2), similar to our Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI). Their map pattern is very similar to ours although with a slightly higher number of melt days in all areas.

total melt days for the Antarctic Ice Sheet and Antarctic Peninsula from 1 November 2024 to 15 March 2025, map and graphs
Figure 1. The top left map shows the total melt days for the Antarctic Ice Sheet from November 1, 2024, to March 15, 2025, with a close-up map of the Antarctic Peninsula to its right. The bottom left and center maps show the total melt days as a difference from average relative to the 1991 to 2020 reference period. The top right graph shows daily melt extent as a percentage of the ice sheet for the 2024 melt season up to March 15, 2025, with the average values and ranges for the same reference period. The bottom right graph shows the same melt extent for the Antarctic Peninsula. The black outline on the corresponding Antarctic Peninsula map shows the grid cells included in the Peninsula measurements. — Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center

Conditions in context

Cool conditions over the Antarctic Peninsula later in the melt season brought on the sudden decline in melt extent and number of melt days. Conditions, however, remained warm compared to the average in Dronning Maud Land and West Antarctica, although temperatures rarely reached high enough to cause melt. East Antarctica was generally cooler than average, although a spurious region of persistently low temperatures and high air pressures in central Wilkes Land is likely related to data from a faulty weather station. Broader measures of climate, such as the Southern Annual Mode Index—a measure of the strength of the polar vortex surrounding Antarctica—were near neutral, indicating that the strong summer melting and low sea ice extent may plausibly be attributed to a warmer climate and ocean rather than an unusual pattern of air circulation.

Air temperature and sea level pressure plots for Antarctica for two different time periods
Figure 2. The top left plot shows the departure from average air temperature in Antarctica at the 925 hPa level, in degrees Celsius, for February 1 to March 15, 2025, relative to the 1991 to 2020 average. The bottom left plot shows the same data for a different time period: November 1, 2024, to March 15, 2025. Yellows and reds indicate above average temperatures; blues and purples indicate below average temperatures. The top right plot shows the departure from average sea level pressure in Antarctica in millibars from February 1 to March 15, 2025. The bottom right plot shows the same data for a different time period: November 1, 2024, to March 15, 2025. Yellows and reds indicate higher air pressure; blues and purples indicate lower pressure. A persistent bullseye, which is a departure from average, in the lower right area of the Antarctic map on the interior Wilkes Land may indicate spurious data from a misreporting weather station. — Credit: NSIDC courtesy NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Sciences Laboratory

Unusual heavy snowfall over the past 12 months may offset ice sheet losses this year

Total net accumulation of snow, known as the surface mass balance (SMB), has been far above average for the March 2024 to February 2025 period, by nearly 200 billion tons. SMB is the net contribution of snowfall, and a tiny amount of rainfall, minus the evaporation of snow and ice from the surface. The excess snowfall was primarily located along the Dronning Maud Land coast, central East Antarctica, and the Getz Ice Shelf area of West Antarctica. For reference, the average annual total surface mass balance for the continent is roughly 2,400 billion tons.

total surface mass balance from March 2024 to February 2025
Figure 3. This graph shows the surface mass balance for the Antarctic Ice Sheet as a difference from the 1981 to 2010 average for March 2024 to February 2025, and several other recent seasons. The values are derived from a climate model based on weather data and physics. The gray band shows the 90 percent range of values over the entire model record. — Credit: X. Fettweis, University of Liège, MAR 3.12 model

Maximum melt pond extent in recent years at two East Antarctic Ice Shelves

While the Larsen Ice Shelf and George VI Ice Shelf reached near-record melt pond extents in early January, the intensity of melting slowed as the month proceeded. However, for the Roi Baudouin and Amery Ice Shelves, near-record melt pond extents were observed into February. 

Satellite images of melt ponds on select ice shevles
Figure 4. These NASA Worldview Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor images depict three ice shelves with unusually extensive melt ponding in 2025. By late January, the melt ponds on the Larsen Ice Shelf reduced in size and frozen over; melt ponds on the Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf were still quite vivid at their maximum extent on February 5; similarly, the Amery Ice Shelf ponds were clear and not re-frozen as of February 5. Images are all at the same scale. — Credit: NASA Worldview application, part of the NASA Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS)

Further Reading

Jezek K. C., C. J. Merry, and D. J. Cavalieri. 1993. Comparison of SMMR and SSM/I passive microwave data collected over Antarctica. Annals of Glaciology, 17:131-136, doi:10.3189/S0260305500012726.

Mottram, R., N. Hansen, C. Kittel, J. M. Van Wessem, C. Agosta, C. Amory, F. Boberg, W. J. Van De Berg, X. Fettweis, A. Gossart, and N. P. Van Lipzig. 2021. What is the surface mass balance of Antarctica? An intercomparison of regional climate model estimates. The Cryosphere, 15(8), 3751-3784, doi:10.5194/tc-15-3751-2021.

Picard, G., and M. Fily. 2006. Surface melting observations in Antarctica by microwave radiometers: Correcting 26-year time series from changes in acquisition hours. Remote Sensing of Environment, 104(3), 325–336, doi:10.1016/j.rse.2006.05.010.