As the sun dips lower on the horizon, air temperatures over the central Arctic Ocean are dropping to near freezing conditions. Further retreat of the ice cover will largely depend on ocean temperatures and wind patterns that can either compact the ice or spread it out. In the Antarctic, sea ice extent continues to track at record low values for this time of year.

Overview of conditions

Figure 1a. Arctic sea ice extent for August 16, 2022 was 6.12 million square kilometers (2.36 million square miles). The orange line shows the 1981 to 2010 average extent for that day. Sea Ice Index data. About the data

Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
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Figure 1b. The graph above shows Arctic sea ice extent as of August 16, 2022, along with daily ice extent data for four previous years and the record low year. 2022 is shown in blue, 2021 in green, 2020 in orange, 2019 in brown, 2018 in magenta, and 2012 in dashed brown. The 1981 to 2010 median is in dark gray. The gray areas around the median line show the interquartile and interdecile ranges of the data. Sea Ice Index data.

Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
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Figure 1c. This map shows Arctic sea ice concentration based on data from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-2 (AMSR-2) data. Yellows indicate sea ice concentration of 75 percent, dark purples indicate sea ice concentration of 100 percent.

Credit: University of Bremen
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As of August 16, Arctic sea ice extent stood at 6.11 million square kilometers (2.36 square miles) (Figure 1a). This was similar to the total extent observed in 2008 and 2013 for this time of year, within 80,000 square kilometers (30,900 square miles) and 40,000 square kilometers (15,400 square miles), respectively. Extent was higher than all other years since 2007 except for 2009 and 2014 (Figure 1b). Since the beginning of August, the ice edge has remained relatively stable in the northern Barents and Kara Seas, with most of the ice retreating in the northern Chukchi Sea, the East Siberian Sea northwest of the New Siberian Islands, and within the channels of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Regionally, ice extent remains below the 1981 to 2010 average in the Barents, Kara, and Laptev Seas, and the northern part of the Chukchi Sea. Ice has persisted along the coast in the East Siberian Sea, where winds have pushed some of the multiyear ice against the shore. The southern route of the Northwest Passage through the Canadian Archipelago appears to be mostly free of ice according to sea ice concentrations from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-2 (Figure 1c). However, the Canadian Ice Service reports some ice remains within Victoria Strait. For the first time since 2008, the Northern Sea Route along Eurasia may not become ice free.

While sea ice is overall more extensive than in recent summers, the ice pack is diffuse throughout the Beaufort Sea, the northern part of the Chukchi Sea, and within the East Siberian Sea. Polynyas have opened near 80 degrees N, north of the Kara Sea. With summer nearing its end, the surface of the ice in the central Arctic Ocean is beginning to refreeze. Any remaining loss of sea ice will be largely dominated by melting within the marginal ice zone by heat stored in the ocean. Ocean-driven melting can persist for another few weeks. The the regions of low ice concentration may still melt out. Wind patterns may also compact the ice in some regions and spread it out in others.

Conditions in context

Figure 2. This plot shows the departure from average air temperature in the Arctic at the 925 hPa level, in degrees Celsius, from August 1 to 15, 2022. Yellows and reds indicate higher than average temperatures; blues and purples indicate lower than average temperatures.

Credit: NSIDC courtesy NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Sciences Laboratory
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During the first half of August, air temperatures at the 925 hPa level (about 2,500 feet above the surface) were modestly above average from the Beaufort Sea across the pole and towards the Kara and Barents Seas (Figure 2). By contrast, temperatures over parts of the East Siberian and Laptev Seas as well as the Bering Sea were slightly below average. While temperatures over the central Arctic Ocean were slightly above average, they are near the freezing point.

Seasonal melt onset a mixed bag

Figure 3. This map shows the date of sea ice melt onset in the Arctic for the 2021 melt season compared to the 1981 to 2010 average. Shades in red depict sea ice melt up to 30 days earlier than average, while shades in blue depict melt up to 30 days later than average.

Credit: Walt Meier, NSIDC; data courtesy J. Miller, NASA Goddard
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Melt onset began nearly a month earlier than the 1981 to 2010 average this year in the Kara and Barents Seas, Northern and Eastern Hudson Bay, and along the coast in the Laptev Sea. In the Bering Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk melt onset was between one and two weeks earlier than average. However, melt onset was later than average over most of the central Arctic Ocean and Baffin Bay. The timing of melt onset plays an important role in the ice-albedo feedback. Early melt onset darkens the surface and reduces its reflectivity, facilitating earlier development of melt ponds and open water areas that absorb more of the sun’s energy, hastening further melt. Early melt onset within the Laptev, Kara, and Barents Seas thus likely fostered faster retreat of the ice cover in those regions. Similarly, late melt onset in Baffin Bay and Davis Strait is consistent with a more extensive ice cover in this region early in the melt season.

Will the extent drop below 5 million square kilometers?

Figure 4. This figure shows Arctic sea ice extent projections for the 2022 minimum using data through August 15, 2022. The solid blue line depicts sea ice extent from May 1 to August 15, 2022. The projections are based on the average loss rates for the 1981 to 2010 average in red, the 2007 to 2021 average in green, 2012 rates in dotted purple, and 2006 rates in dotted teal. 2012 yields the lowest projected minimum, while 2006 yields the highest projected minimum. This figure has been submitted to the 2022 Sea Ice Outlook August report.

Credit: Walt Meier, National Snow and Ice Data Center
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One simple way to estimate how much ice will be left at the end of this summer is to use ice loss rates from previous years and apply them to this year. Starting on August 15 and forecasting 6 weeks into the future suggests a 30 percent chance the total extent this summer may stay above 5 million square kilometers (1.93 million square miles), something that has not happened since 2014. The fastest ice loss rates occurred in 2012, the year which ended up with the record minimum ice extent. With this unlikely trajectory, extent would bottom out at about 4 million square kilometers (1.54 million square miles). We expect that the September minimum ice extent will rank between the seventh and fifteenth lowest this year.

Antarctic sea ice still tracking at record lows

Figure 5. The graph above shows Antarctic sea ice extent as of August 16, 2022, along with daily ice extent data for four previous years and the record high year. 2022 is shown in blue, 2021 in green, 2020 in orange, 2019 in brown, 2018 in magenta, and 2014 in dashed brown. The 1981 to 2010 median is in dark gray. The gray areas around the median line show the interquartile and interdecile ranges of the data. Sea Ice Index data.

Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
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As of August 16, Antarctic sea ice extent was tracking below all previous years. At the start of August, it was tracking at second lowest. Ice retreated in the Bellingshausen Sea and parts of the Indian Ocean the first two weeks of August, whereas the ice edge expanded in the Weddell and Ross Seas. In the Bellingshausen Sea, air temperatures at the 925 millibar level have been as much as 7 degrees Celsius (13 degrees Fahrenheit) above average the first two weeks of August, as winds from the north have pushed warmer air and the ice edge towards the Antarctic coast.

The seasonal decline in Arctic sea ice extent from mid-July onward has proceeded at a near average pace. Extent is currently well below average, but above that observed for recent years. Extent is particularly low in the Laptev Sea sector, but ice extends to near the shore further east. Depending on weather conditions, the southern route through the Northwest Passage may become open. An area of low concentration ice persists over the central Arctic Ocean, extending to near the North Pole, and Antarctic ice extent is still at a record low.

Overview of conditions

Figure 1a. Arctic sea ice extent for August 1, 2022 was 6.99 million square kilometers (2.70 million square miles). The orange line shows the 1981 to 2010 average extent for that day. Sea Ice Index data. About the data

Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
High-resolution image

Figure 1b. The graph above shows Arctic sea ice extent as of August 1, 2022, along with daily ice extent data for four previous years and the record low year. 2022 is shown in blue, 2021 in green, 2020 in orange, 2019 in brown, 2018 in magenta, and 2012 in dashed brown. The 1981 to 2010 median is in dark gray. The gray areas around the median line show the interquartile and interdecile ranges of the data. Sea Ice Index data.

Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
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Figure 1c. This figure shows ice motion vectors at 62.5-kilometer spatial resolution from July 19 to 21, 2022, based on passive and active microwave satellite data from the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facilities low-resolution sea ice drift product. Strong on-shore ice motion during the third week of July in part explains the persistence of sea ice in the East Siberian Sea. 


Credit: European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facilities
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As of August 1, Arctic sea ice extent stood at 6.99 million square kilometers (2.70 million square miles) (Figure 1a). The decline rate of the extent through the second half of July was near the 1981 to 2010 average. Extent on August 1, while well below the 1981 to 2010 average, was the highest since 2014 and overall was twelfth lowest in the satellite record (Figure 1b). The average extent for the month of July as a whole was 8.25 million square kilometers (3.19 million square miles), the twelfth lowest in the satellite record.

As previously reported in our mid-July post, a notable aspect of this summer so far is the substantial amount of open water along the Eurasia Coast in the Laptev Sea sector. However, by sharp contrast, ice is extensive further east in the East Siberian Sea, extending to near the shore. Strong on-shore ice motion during the third week of July in part explains the persistence of sea ice in this region (Figure 1c). Extent continues to be below average in the Barents Sea. The area of low concentration ice over the central Arctic Ocean extending to near the pole persists.

While Russia makes use of the Northern Sea route year-round, over the past decade, this coastal route has become nearly or completely ice-free in late summer. Given the extensive ice in the East Siberian Sea, it seems unlikely that this will be the case in 2022. By contrast, as assessed from Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) satellite data, the southern route through the Northwest Passage, known as Amundsen’s route, may open in the next few weeks, depending on weather conditions.

Conditions in context

Figure 2a. This plot shows average sea level pressure in the Arctic in millibars from July 15 to July 30, 2022. Yellows and reds indicate high air pressure; blues and purples indicate low pressure.

Credit: NSIDC courtesy NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Sciences Laboratory
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Figure 2b. This plot shows the departure from average air temperature, relative to the 1981 to 2020 reference period, in the Arctic at the 925 hPa level, in degrees Celsius, from July 15 to July 30, 2022. Yellows and reds indicate higher than average temperatures; blues and purples indicate lower than average temperatures.

Credit: NSIDC courtesy NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Sciences Laboratory
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The second half of July saw a shift in weather patterns. While the average sea level pressure pattern for the first half of the month featured a distinct area of low pressure centered over the central Arctic Ocean near the North Pole, the pattern for the second half of the month was one of high pressure (an anticyclone) centered north of the Laptev Sea, with low pressure centered near the Bering Strait between eastern Russia and Alaska (Figure 2a). This shift explains both the below average temperatures at the 925 mb level (about 2,500 feet above the surface) over the East Siberian Sea, where the implied winds between the high and low pressures have a component from the north, and the above average temperature north of the Barents Sea, where the implied winds on the eastern side of the anticyclone have an offshore component (Figure 2b).

July 2022 compared to previous years

Figure 3. Monthly July ice extent for 1979 to 2022 shows a decline of 7.2 percent per decade.

Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
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Looking at the month as a whole, July sea ice extent declined by 2.42 million square kilometers (930,000 square miles), or at a rate of 78,100 square kilometers (30,200 square miles) per day, which was near the 1981 to 2010 average. This resulted in the average July extent ranking twelfth lowest in the satellite record. The downward linear trend in July sea ice extent over the 44-year-satellite record is 68,500 square kilometers (26,400 square miles) per year, or 7.2 percent per decade relative to the 1981 to 2010 average (Figure 3).

Antarctic sea ice

Figure 4. Antarctic sea ice extent for August 1, 2022 was 15.90 million square kilometers (6.14 million square miles). The orange line shows the 1981 to 2010 average extent for that day. Sea Ice Index data. About the data

Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
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As of this report, Antarctic sea ice extent persists at record low levels, with regional low ice extent along the Weddell Sea at its northern ice edge, much of the East Antarctic coast, and the Bellingshausen Sea. The summer has been marked by a strong Amundsen Sea Low, which tends to drive warmer air from the northwest across the Peninsula and into the northern Weddell Sea. A high pressure tendency over Queen Maud Land is also acting to bring warm air from the north across the eastern end of the Weddell Sea ice cover. Overall, conditions on the continent and adjacent seas are far warmer than is typical, with regions near the Peninsula up to 5 degrees Celsius (9 degrees Fahrenheit) above average for May through July, and temperatures in the Weddell Sea between 3 to 7 degrees Celsius (5 to 13 degrees Fahrenheit) above average. Above average temperatures extend across most of the continent and East Antarctic coast, where conditions are 1 to 4 degrees Celsius (2 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit) above average. Only the northern Ross Sea has significantly below average temperatures, of around 4 degrees Celsius (7 degrees Fahrenheit) below average.

A recent paper by our colleagues John Turner and others from British Antarctic Survey, along with co-authors from India and the U.S., looks at the conditions that led to the record low sea ice extent observed in February of this year. Overall, the authors attribute the low sea ice conditions to a combination of large-scale circulation patterns, including La Niña and a strong Amundsen Sea Low, and the impacts of severe regional storms moving ice away from the coast and into warmer waters and greater sunlight.

Effects of Arctic ozone depletion

Figure 5. This figure shows record low Arctic ozone concentrations observed on March 12, 2020.

Credit: NASA Goddard Earth Observing System data assimilation system (DAS).
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While the Antarctic ozone hole that develops in austral spring is well known, stratospheric ozone depletion can also occur in the Arctic, though to a lesser extent. A recent study by Marina Friedel and colleagues, based on both observations and models, finds that springtime stratospheric ozone depletion over the Arctic is consistently followed by surface temperature and precipitation anomalies consistent with a positive Arctic Oscillation, an atmospheric pattern known to have significant impacts on climate conditions over the parts of the Northern Hemisphere as well as the Arctic. The authors argue that this is because ozone depletion leads to a reduction in short-wave radiation absorption, causing persistent negative temperature anomalies in the lower stratosphere and a delayed break up of the stratospheric polar vortex. When the Arctic Oscillation is positive, sea level air pressure is lower than average over the North Pole and higher than average over the mid-latitudes. This pressure pattern helps to keep cold air in the Arctic and favors warmer temperatures over the mid-latitudes. In 2020, Arctic ozone concentrations reached a record low on March 12 of 205 Dobson Units (Figure 5) compared to an average value of 240 Dobson Units for this time of year. At the same time, the Arctic Oscillation index reached a record high positive value. As a result, central and northern Europe were exceptionally warm and dry in spring 2020, whereas wet and cold conditions prevailed in the Arctic.

Further reading

Friedel, M., G. Chiodo, A. Stenke, et al. 2022. Springtime arctic ozone depletion forces northern hemisphere climate anomalies. Nature Geoscience. doi:10.1038/s41561-022-00974-7.

Lavergne, T., S. Eastwood, Z. Teffah, H. Schyberg, and L.-A. Breivik. 2010. Sea ice motion from low resolution satellite sensors: an alternative method and its validation in the Arctic. Journal of Geophysical Research. doi:10.1029/2009JC005958.

Turner, J., C. Holmes, T. Caton Harrison, T. Phillips, B. Jena, T. Reeves-Francois, R. Fogt, E. R. Thomas, C. C. Bajish. 2022. Record low Antarctic sea ice cover in February 2022. Geophysical Research Letters. doi:10.1029/2022GL098904.