On September 13, Arctic sea ice appears to have reached its seasonal minimum extent of 4.64 million square kilometers (1.79 million square miles), the eighth lowest in the 38-year satellite record. The overall rate of ice loss this summer was slowed by a persistent pattern of low sea level pressure focused over the central Arctic Ocean.

Please note that this is a preliminary announcement. Changing winds or late-season melt could still reduce the Arctic ice extent, as happened in 2005 and 2010. NSIDC scientists will release a full analysis of the Arctic melt season, and discuss the Antarctic winter sea ice growth, in early October.

Overview of conditions

Figure 1. Arctic sea ice extent for September 13, 2017 was 4.64 million square kilometers (1.79 million square miles), the eighth lowest in the satellite record. The orange line shows the 1981 to 2010 average extent for that day. Sea Ice Index data. About the data

Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
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On September 13, 2017, sea ice extent reached an annual minimum of 4.64 million square kilometers (1.79 million square miles). This was 1.58 million square kilometers (610,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 median extent for the same day, and 1.25 million square kilometers (483,000 square miles) and 500,000 square kilometers (193,000 square miles) above the 2012 and 2016 extents for the same day, respectively.

During the first two weeks of September, the ice edge continued to retreat in the Chukchi, East Siberian, and Kara Seas, whereas it slightly expanded in the Beaufort and Laptev Seas. The ice edge remains far to the north of its average position in the Chukchi Sea. The Northern Sea Route is largely open; Amundsen’s Northwest Passage (the southern route) has up to 50 percent ice cover in some places, though as noted in our last post, ships have successfully navigated through the southern route with icebreaker assistance. The northern Northwest Passage route, entered from the west via McClure Strait, remains choked by consolidated, thick, multi-year ice.

Conditions in context

Figure 2a. The graph above shows Arctic sea ice extent as of September 17, 2017, along with daily ice extent data for five previous years. 2017 is shown in blue, 2016 in green, 2015 in orange, 2014 in brown, 2013 in purple, and 2012 in dashed brown. The 1981 to 2010 median is in dark gray. The gray areas around the median line show the interquartile and interdecile ranges of the data. Sea Ice Index data.

Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
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Figure 2b. This image shows average sea level pressure over the Arctic Ocean for the period of September 1 to 16, 2017.

Credit: NSIDC courtesy NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division
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The date of the minimum ice extent for 2017 was two days earlier than the average minimum date of September 15. The earliest annual sea ice minimum in the satellite record occurred on September 5 in the years 1980 and 1987, and the latest on September 23, 1997.

As is typical of this time of year when the solar radiation received at the surface is quickly waning, the rate of ice loss slowed during the first half of September. Ice retreat from the beginning of September until the minimum averaged 25,300 square kilometers (9,770 square miles) per day, slightly faster than the 1981 to 2010 average for the same period of 22,800 square kilometers (8,800 square miles) per day.

The pattern of low sea level pressure over the central Arctic Ocean that persisted through this summer and inhibited summer ice loss has broken down. For the first half of September, the pattern has instead been one of above-average sea level pressure centered over the Barents Sea and extending across part of the Arctic Ocean (Figure 2b). Corresponding air temperatures at the 925 hPa level (about 2,500 feet above sea level) were above average over most of the Arctic Ocean. Above average temperatures over some parts of the Arctic Ocean likely reflect heat transfer to the atmosphere from areas of open water, hence cooling the ocean.

Ten lowest minimum Arctic sea ice extents (satellite record, 1979 to present)

Effects of seasonal ice retreat in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas

Figure 3. This chart shows combined sea ice extent in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas from August 15 to October 7 for the years 2006 to 2016, including the extent so far for 2017. The colored dots show the day the minimum occurred in the region during a specific year. Data are from the Multisensor Analyzed Sea Ice Extent (MASIE) product.

Credit: Courtesy R. Thoman/National Weather Service Alaska Region Environmental and Scientific Services Division
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According to a report by the Alaska Dispatch News, the lack of sea ice forced walruses to the shore of Alaska’s Chukchi Sea earlier than any time on record. The lack of ice also forced biologists monitoring Alaska polar bears to cut short their spring field season. In turn, the NOAA National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center states that because of the extensive open water, air temperatures over the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas and along the North Slope of Alaska will likely be far above average through this autumn.

Rick Thoman of the National Weather Service in Fairbanks, Alaska compiled an analysis of the combined Chukchi and Beaufort Seas ice extent from the Multisensor Analyzed Sea Ice Extent (MASIE) product. MASIE is based on operational ice analyses at the U.S. National Ice Center and is archived and distributed by NSIDC. It shows that 2017 tracked near record lows for the region through much of the summer, but after mid-August the pace of ice loss slowed relative to recent years. While it appears unlikely that extent in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas will reach a record low (set in 2012), it will still be among the four or five lowest in the MASIE record (Figure 3). Note that the range in dates for the minimum extent in the region differs from those for the Arctic as a whole and tend to be later, ranging from September 10 in 2015 to September 25 in 2007 and 2008. In other words, the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas may continue to lose ice even after the overall Arctic minimum extent is reached. From the passive microwave data (not shown), the Chukchi/Beaufort minimum has occurred as early as August 14 in 1980 to as late as October 2 in 1991.

Antarctic sea ice approaching winter maximum

Figure 4a. The graph above shows Antarctic sea ice extent as of September 17, 2017, along with daily ice extent data for four previous years. 2017 is shown in blue, 2016 in green, 2015 in orange, 2014 in dashed brown, 2013 in purple. The 1981 to 2010 median is in dark gray. The gray areas around the median line show the interquartile and interdecile ranges of the data. Sea Ice Index data.

Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
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Figure 4b: This map shows Antarctic sea ice concentration on September 16, 2017. Note the Maud Rise polynya at the top of the image. Data are from the Advanced Microwave Scannig Radiometer 2 (AMSR2).

Credit: G. Heygster, C. Melsheimer, J. Notholt/Institute of Environmental Physics, University of Bremen
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Following the record low summer minimum extent in March, Antarctic sea ice extent is now nearing its winter maximum. This will likely be among the five lowest winter extents in the satellite era. As of mid-September, Antarctic ice extent was just under 18 million square kilometers (7 million square miles), which is approximately half a million square kilometers below the 1981 to 2010 median ice extent. Sea ice is below the typical extent in the Indian Ocean sector, the northern Ross Sea, and the northern Weddell Sea, and slightly above average extent in the northern Amundsen Sea region.

Between September 9 and September 17 of 2016, Antarctic sea ice lost nearly 100,000 square kilometers (38,600 square miles) of sea ice per day, and sea ice extent moved from near-average to a near-record-daily low by September 17. For the next 12 months Antarctic sea ice remained extremely low. Record low ice extents were set every day from November 5, 2016 to April 10, 2017. Extents averaged for November and December of 2016 were five standard deviations below average. No other 12-month period (September 2016 to August 2017) has had such persistently low sea ice extent. The year 1986 had near-record low extent for the winter period (June to December), but there were periods of near-average and even above-average ice extent earlier in the calendar year.

Beginning around September 2, an opening in the Antarctic sea ice pack formed north of Dronning Maud Land in the easternmost Weddell Sea (near 64°S, 5°E). By mid-September, this opening, or polynya, had grown to about 12,000 square kilometers (4,600 square miles). This feature has been observed intermittently in the Antarctic pack ice since the first satellite data became available in the 1970s. In 1974, 1975, and 1976, the polynya was much larger, averaging 250,000 square kilometers (96,500 square miles). It was absent for many years in the 1980s and 1990s. In recent years the feature has been observed sporadically and has been much smaller.

The polynya is formed when ocean currents uplift deep warm ocean water to the surface where it melts the sea ice. An oceanic plateau called the Maud Rise is responsible for forcing the vertical movement of the water. The persistence of certain atmospheric patterns, such as the southern annular mode, or SAM, is thought to play a role in driving the deep water layer against the Maud Rise.

2017 Arctic sea ice minimum animation

See the NASA animation of Arctic sea ice extent from the beginning of the melt season on March 8, 2017 to the day of the annual minimum on September 13, 2017 here.

Further reading

Gordon, A.L., Visbeck, M. and Comiso, J.C. 2007. A possible link between the Weddell Polynya and the Southern Annular Mode. Journal of Climate, 20(11), 2558-2571. doi:10.1175/JCLI4046.1

Holland, D.M. 2001. Explaining the Weddell Polynya–a large ocean eddy shed at Maud Rise. Science, 292(5522), 1697-1700. doi:10.1126/science.1059322.

Erratum

In Table 1, years 2014 and 2013 were both ranked ninth lowest. They should have been ninth and tenth respectively. This has been corrected.

Average sea ice extent for August 2017 ended up third lowest in the satellite record. Ice loss rates through August were variable, but slower overall than in recent years. Extensive areas of low concentration ice cover (40 to 70 percent) are still present across much of the Eurasian side of the Arctic Ocean.

Overview of conditions

Figure 1. Arctic sea ice extent for August 2017 was 5.51 million square kilometers (2.13 million square miles). The magenta line shows the 1981 to 2010 average extent for that month. Sea Ice Index data. About the data

Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
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Arctic sea ice extent for August 2017 averaged 5.51 million square kilometers (2.13 million square miles), the third lowest August in the 1979 to 2017 satellite record. This was 1.77 million square kilometers (683,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average, and 800,000 square kilometers (309,000 square miles) above the record low August set in 2012.

Ice retreat was most pronounced in the western Beaufort Sea. A large region in the Beaufort Sea and East Siberian Sea has low concentration sea ice (40 to 70 percent). Patches of low concentration sea ice and some open water northeast of the Taymyr Peninsula are also present.

While a record low minimum extent in the Arctic is unlikely this year, the ice edge in the Beaufort Sea is extremely far north. In parts of this region, the ice edge is farther north than at any time since the satellite record began in 1979. This highlights the pronounced regional variability in ice conditions from year to year. A couple of the models that contribute to the Sea Ice Prediction Network Sea Ice Outlooks forecasted significantly less ice in the Beaufort Sea in July this year compared to average conditions.

Conditions in context

Figure 2a. The graph above shows Arctic sea ice extent as of September 5, 2017, along with daily ice extent data for five previous years. 2017 is shown in blue, 2016 in green, 2015 in orange, 2014 in brown, 2013 in purple, and 2012 in dotted brown. The 1981 to 2010 median is in dark gray. The gray areas around the median line show the interquartile and interdecile ranges of the data. Sea Ice Index data.

Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
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Figure 2b. This image shows average sea level pressure in millibars over the Arctic for the month of August 2017.

Credit: NSIDC courtesy NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Sciences Division
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Over the month, low atmospheric pressure prevailed over much of the Arctic Ocean, centered over the northern Beaufort Sea (Figure 2b). This helped to push the ice edge in that region northward. Summers dominated by low pressure, as has been the case for 2017, are generally not conducive to ice loss. Low pressure brings generally cool conditions and the cyclonic (counterclockwise) winds help spread the ice over a larger area. However, it appears that strong individual storms, such as the intense summer cyclone of 2012, may break up the ice and mix warm ocean waters into the sea ice, contributing to ice loss.

August 2017 compared to previous years

Figure 3. Monthly August ice extent for 1979 to 2017 shows a decline of 10.5 percent per decade.

Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
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The linear rate of decline for August 2017 is 76,300 square kilometers (29,000 square miles) per year, or 10.5 percent per decade. The daily ice loss rate was variable over the month, slowing considerably during the middle and end of the month. Overall, the loss rate during August 2017 was slower than recent years, particularly 2012, when extent decreased rapidly during the first half of the month after a the passage of a strong storm.

A report on the Northwest Passage

Figure 4a. This shows the route of the Crystal Serenity (yellow line) overlaid on a map of ice cover in the Northwest Passage region for September 5, 2017.

Credit: Canadian Ice Service Daily and Regional Ice Charts
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Figure 4b. This chart shows sea ice area in the Parry Channel region of the Canadian Archipelago from April 30 to November 26 for the years 2010 (magenta), 2011 (dashed green), 2014 (blue green), 2016 (purple), and 2017 (red). The black line shows the 1981 to 2010 long-term average.

Credit: Environment and Climate Change Canada
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Figure 4c. This photo shows sea ice conditions along the route of the Crystal Serenity.

Credit: C. Haas, York University
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Of particular interest each year are the ice conditions in the Northwest Passage. Our colleagues, Stephen Howell and Michael Brady of the Climate Research Division at Environment and Climate Change Canada, provided a status update based on sea ice charts produced by the Canadian Ice Service.

As of August 28, the northern route of the Northwest Passage was blocked by high concentration ice at the western (Parry Channel) entrance (Figure 4a), but overall extent in the passage is still tracking below the 1981 to 2010 average (Figure 4b). The record low seasonal extent in the northern route was in 2011. Low ice years in the northern route are typically the result of early breakup associated with above-average sea level pressure over the Beaufort Sea and Canadian Basin; this pattern tends to displace ice away from the western entrance. Conversely, low sea level pressure over the Beaufort Sea, such as seen this summer, packs ice up against the western entrance. It is unlikely the northern route will open in this year. Ice concentrations are much milder in the southern route (Amundsen’s Passage) but some ice still blocks the eastern part of that passage. This is primarily first year ice that may melt out in the coming weeks. During low ice summers, thick multi-year ice originating from the Arctic Ocean is typically advected into the channels of both the northern and southern routes, representing a significant hazard to transiting ships.

The Crystal Serenity luxury cruise ship, accompanied by an icebreaker, is attempting a repeat of last year’s cruise through the passage. Professor Christian Haas of York University in Toronto, who is providing sea ice expertise on board the ship, sent us a first-hand account of conditions:

“On August 29 and 30, we encountered some high concentration ice, up to 90 percent, just before entering Bellot Strait. The ice was mostly first-year ice, with about 30 percent multi-year ice having thicknesses greater than 2 meters (6.5 feet). Due to the relatively severe ice conditions, we were supported by the Canadian Coast Guard icebreaker Des Groseilliers, which helped clear some ice on our route into Franklin Strait. Overall, ice conditions have been much more severe than during the first transit of the Northwest Passage of the Crystal Serenity in 2016, when no ice was encountered at all.”

Figure 4c shows conditions along the route. The ship’s latest position is available at the cruise’s blog.

Also of note, the Finnish icebreaker MSV Nordica, set a new record for the earliest transit through the passage on July 29, traveling 10,000 kilometers (6,000 miles) in 24 days.

On the other side of the Arctic, the Northeast Passage (or Northern Sea Route) along the coast of Siberia appears largely open as shown by NSIDC data, though operational analysis by the U.S. National Ice Center shows some remaining ice along the coast of the Taymyr Peninsula.

A radar view of the Arctic

Figure 5. This figure shows a composite image from Sentinel-1 SAR imagery for August 29, 2017 overlaid with passive microwave sea ice concentration from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) sensor. Red/pink shades indicate regions of high (more than 90 percent) concentration, while green/brown shades indicate lower (~30-70 percent) concentration. Open water is in black to blue/gray shades. Open water is evident between floes of ice in the low concentration regions.

Credit: Image from Danish Technical University, courtesy Leif Pedersen and Roberto Saldo
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The passive microwave satellite imagery that NSIDC uses is ideal for showing long-term changes in sea ice because it provides a continuous record extending back to 1979. Its drawback is low spatial resolution. Satellite radar images, though more limited in spatial and temporal coverage, provide a more detailed picture of the ice cover. A daily composite of images from the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-1 satellite, with a synthetic aperture radar (SAR) instrument, shows substantial open water well within the ice pack, north of 80° N latitude.