Arctic sea ice growth was slow in February, leaving extent at record-low levels. In the Antarctic, the annual minimum in extent is imminent, and near the 2023 record low. Despite cold conditions in much of the United States and Canada through February, the Arctic was relatively warm, with air temperatures up to 12 degrees Celsius (22 degrees Fahrenheit) above average.
Overview of conditions
The average February 2025 Arctic sea ice extent was 13.75 million square kilometers (5.31 million square miles), the lowest February extent in the 46-year satellite record, 220,000 square kilometers (85,000 square miles) below the previous record low February set in 2018. Daily ice growth stalled twice during the month, which helped to contribute to low ice conditions and led to overall ice retreat in the Barents Sea. By the end of the month, extent was low nearly everywhere, the exception being the East Greenland Sea. Extent is far below average in the Labrador Sea and the Gulf of St. Lawrence.
Figure 1a. Arctic sea ice extent for February 2025 was 13.75 million square kilometers (5.31 million square miles). The magenta line shows the 1981 to 2010 average extent for that month. Sea Ice Index data. About the data Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
Figure 1b. The graph above shows Arctic sea ice extent as of March 3, 2025, along with daily ice extent data for four previous years and the record low year. 2024 to 2025 is shown in blue, 2023 to 2024 in green, 2022 to 2023 in orange, 2021 to 2022 in brown, 2020 to 2021 in magenta, and 2011 to 2012 in dashed brown. The 1981 to 2010 median is in dark gray. The gray areas around the median line show the interquartile and interdecile ranges of the data. Sea Ice Index data. Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
Conditions in context
Air temperatures of at least 2 degrees Celsius (4 degrees Fahrenheit) above average dominated the Arctic. Between northern Greenland and the North Pole, temperatures were especially high, up to 12 degrees Celsius (22 degrees Fahrenheit) above average. High pressure prevailed over the Pacific side of the Arctic (Beaufort, Chukchi, and East Siberian Seas), while low pressure was generally found over the Atlantic side. Strong low pressure occurred on the opposing fringes of the Arctic, over the Bering Sea and off the southern tip of Greenland, which stunted ice growth in the Bering and Barents Seas.
Figure 2a. This plot shows the departure from average air temperature in the Arctic at the 925 hPa level, in degrees Celsius, for February 2025 relative to the 1981 to 2010 average. Yellows and reds indicate above average temperatures; blues and purples indicate below average temperatures. — Credit: NSIDC courtesy NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Sciences Laboratory
Figure 2b. This plot shows average sea level pressure in the Arctic in millibars for February 2025. Yellows and reds indicate higher air pressure; blues and purples indicate lower pressure. — Credit: NSIDC courtesy NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Sciences Laboratory
February 2025 compared to previous years
The downward linear trend through 2025 for February is 42,000 square kilometers (16,000 square miles) per year or 2.7 percent per decade relative to the 1981 to 2010 average. Based on the linear trend, since 1979, February has lost 1.92 million square kilometers (741,000 square miles). This is slightly larger than the size of Alaska.
Antarctic sea ice approaches annual minimum
Antarctic sea ice extent is nearing its annual minimum. As of March 1, extent was 1.98 million square kilometers (764,000 square miles), tying with 2022 and 2024 for the second lowest Antarctic extent in the 46-year satellite record. It is possible that extent could still drop lower before the minimum is reached. The annual minimum has historically occurred over a three-week range between mid-February and early March. NSIDC will announce the minimum once it has been confirmed.
Sea Ice loss during February occurred primarily in the eastern Ross Sea and the Amundsen Sea, where ice concentration is also low. There has also been sea ice loss along the eastern edge of the Weddell Sea ice pack.
Figure 4a. The graph above shows Antarctic sea ice extent as of March 3, 2025, along with daily ice extent data for four previous years and the record maximum year. 2024 to 2025 is shown in blue, 2023 to 2024 in green, 2022 to 2023 in orange, 2021 to 2022 in brown, 2020 to 2021 in magenta, and 2013 to 2014 in dashed brown. The 1981 to 2010 median is in dark gray. The gray areas around the median line show the interquartile and interdecile ranges of the data. Sea Ice Index data. Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
Figure 4b. This map compares Antarctic sea ice extent at the beginning and end of February 2025. Sea ice extent on February 1 is depicted as white, while sea ice extent on February 28 is depicted as dark blue. Ice extent on both dates is depicted as light blue. Missing data appears in yellow. Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
Last Ice Area, how long will it last?
As noted above, temperatures north of Greenland and the Canadian Archipelago were notably high in February. This region has the thickest ice because of generally cold conditions and compaction of ice caused by a prevailing sea ice circulation pattern. It will likely be the last area to retain sea ice through the summer as the climate warms; thus, being dubbed the “Last Ice Area.” This region could retain its ice cover for many years, even under strong future warming. It is considered a potential refuge for ice dependent species like polar bears, seals, and walruses. However, two recent papers suggest that this may be overly optimistic. The first, led by NSIDC scientist Julienne Stroeve, finds that under current national commitments to limit global warming to 2.7 degrees Celsius (4.9 degrees Fahrenheit), the Arctic Ocean will become seasonally ice free for several months each year. Under a lower warming scenario of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit), some ice is likely to remain, including the Last Ice Area.
A paper by Madeleine Fol and colleagues, found that under high warming scenarios, the ice in the Last Ice Area thins and much of it is pushed out of the Arctic through the Canadian Archipelago, the Nares Strait, and Fram Strait. This would potentially clear out the Last Ice Area slightly more than a decade after the rest of the Arctic Ocean becomes ice free. This would mean a completely seasonally sea-ice-free Arctic.
Atlantification of the Arctic
Warm but salty Atlantic water flows into the Barents Sea and then sinks below the colder and fresher Arctic mixed layer. A new paper by Polyakov and colleagues finds that the Atlantic water is penetrating further into the Arctic Ocean than it used to, a process termed “Atlantification.” The paper notes evidence of Atlantic water reaching beyond the Barents Sea and into the ocean basin of the Kara and Laptev Seas, which has ramifications for Arctic sea ice thickness and extent and Arctic ecosystems.
References
Fol, M., B. Tremblay, S. Pfirman, R. Newton, S. Howell, and J.-F. Lemieux. 2025. Revisiting the Last Ice Area projections from a high-resolution Global Earth System Model. Communications Earth and Environment 6: 46. doi:10.1038/s43247-025-02034-5.
Polyakov, I.V., A.V. Pnyushov, M. Charette, K.H. Cho, J. Jung, L. Kipp, M. Muilwijk, L, Whitmore, E.J. Yang, and J. Yoo. 2025. Atlantification advances into the Amerasian Basin of the Arctic Ocean. Science Advances 11: eadq7580. doi:10.1126/sciadv.adq7580.
Stroeve, J.C., D. Notz, J. Dawson, E.A.G. Schuur, D. Dahle-Jensen, and C. Giesse. 2025. Disappearing landscapes: The Arctic at +2.7°C global warming. Science 387: 616-621. doi:10.1126/science.ads1549.