[GLIMS] Space debris threat?

[Jeffrey Kargel]

Dear GLIMS folks:

A Chinese rocket broke up (appears that it exploded) just above the A-Train (Landsats, many others, until recently including Terra ASTER). This disrupted rocket and its debris field orbit just above the A train (865 km vs. 705 km for the A-train). The objects—being much smaller than an entire rocket (because there are nearly 1000 pieces), and many likely having a large surface area to mass (like pieces of rocket casings and fuel tanks), will decay in their orbits. How quickly, I am not sure, because the atmosphere is very tenuous at that altitude. With any luck, the decays will be rapid and pass through the A-train quickly, minimizing chances of a collision with either a functional satellite (and ruining it), or colliding with any satellite (functional or not) and producing even more of a debris cloud. Likewise, we can hope for safety of the International Space Station.

In any case, I am worried.  Not excessively. The Chinese conducted an anti-satellite test in 2007 by blowing up a defunct satellite (via kinetic interaction) at a similar altitude (800 km). Though there may have been some damaging interactions with the debris cloud, it was not catastrophic. Hopefully this exploded rocket debris will pass with no bad effect on Earth observing satellites.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/09/science/china-rocket-stage-orbital-debris/?dicbo=v2-yeckbsT&hpt=ob_blogfooterold
[https://media.cnn.com/api/v1/images/stellar/prod/ap24219449930632.jpg?c=16x9&q=w_800,c_fill]<https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/09/science/china-rocket-stage-orbital-debris/?dicbo=v2-yeckbsT&hpt=ob_blogfooterold>
Chinese rocket breaks apart in low-Earth orbit, creating a cloud of space debris, US Space Command says | CNN<https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/09/science/china-rocket-stage-orbital-debris/?dicbo=v2-yeckbsT&hpt=ob_blogfooterold>
A Chinese rocket broke apart in low-Earth orbit after delivering 18 satellites to space. Experts are still assessing the risks of the event.
www.cnn.com

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