[GLIMS] FW: Glacier Mass Balance project

Mon Aug 29 16:12:03 MDT 2011

In my research of ice-marginal glacier dammed lakes across Alaska, reviewing change in over 500 lakes since 1971, there is what I consider a clear (but statistically weakly supported) parallel in the RATE of change in lakes and damming glaciers with the RATE of increase in temperature as meassured at surrounding low-elevation met. stations.

What Wendell is proposing gets at this same concept. For those interested, here is a link to a poster I put together to hint at the idea and stimulate conversation:
http://weather.arsc.edu/Events/AWS10/Presentations/WolfePoster.pdf 

The glaciers across Alaska that dam lakes overlap with about 25% of the sample of glaciers studied by Arendt et al such that some of the findings from each study may be extrapolated.
-Dave Wolfe  

--- On Sat, 8/27/11, Jeffrey Kargel <jeffreyskargel at hotmail.com> wrote:

From: Jeffrey Kargel <jeffreyskargel at hotmail.com>
Subject: [GLIMS] FW: Glacier Mass Balance project
To: "GLIMS Mailing List" <glims at nsidc.org>
Cc: birbal at hymet.com, hymet01 at gmail.com
Date: Saturday, August 27, 2011, 12:16 PM

Dear GLIMS colleagues,

Please consider Wendell Tangborn's project, below.  On one hand, if you have spare cash, I think you could be in business with him :)  However, if your situation, like mine, is not so cash-endowed, we still may be able to help with the project.  We are doing tasks 1-2 or 1-3 anyway, and for a lot more than 200 glaciers.  Whereas I wonder whether meteorological station data from stations up to 300 km away would be sufficient for the job (in some cases they would not be; others perhaps so), the basic idea sounds interesting.  As a consortium, we can certainly come up with a list of 200 preferred glaciers that exist close to met stations and which would be appropriate for this project.  You may respond directly to Wendell Tangborn or indicate your interest to me.  We can set up an internet site where glacier suggestions can be made and whether you are willing and able to provide the area-altitude data (which presupposes that you have or will have a
 glacier outline).  These are basic GLIMS type data anyway.

--Jeff

Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2011 11:15:33 -0700
Subject: Glacier Mass Balance project
From: hymet01 at gmail.com
To: kargel at hwr.arizona.edu
CC: birbal at hymet.com

To:      Jeffery Kargel
From:  Wendell Tangborn
Subject Glacier Mass Balance Project

I am seeking collaborators and support for a project to calculate the mass balances of a small sample (about 0.12%) of the earth’s 160,000 glaciers. The purpose of this project is to determine the cause of the rapid and unprecedented decline of the world’s glaciers during the past 3-5 decades. It is incomprehensible that the public has not been more alarmed by the shrinkage and demise of so many glaciers, some of which have been in existence for a 100.000 years or more.  The recent catastrophic rate of mass loss is even more ominous than their disappearance.

The PTAA (precipitation-temperature-area-altitude) glacier mass balance model that I developed will be used to accomplish the project's goals.   This model uses only easily available daily temperature and precipitation observations at mostly low-altitude weather stations, plus the glacier’s area-altitude distribution.  Both of these variables are inexpensive to acquire and readily available for most of the world’s glaciers. A unique feature of this model is that it relies on a memory of the past climate embedded in the glacier's surface configuration to determine the current mass balance.  

The PTAA model has been successfully applied to several dozen glaciers in Alaska and the Pacific NW, and was also tested on one glacier in the Himalayas. Several peer-reviewed scientific papers and three MS thesis that are based on the PTAA model have been published. see
 http://glacierchange.org/blog//

The PTAA FORTRAN program and all auxiliary programs will be turned over to the organization or group that agrees to manage and support this project.  HyMet will be available to assist in setting up and initially running the model and other programs.

Initial tasks

1. Select approximately 200 glaciers (5-10 for each mountain range) on the basis of available DEM data and proximity to long-term (50-60 years) weather stations
2. Tabulate area-altitude distribution from the DEM for each glacier
3. Collect daily temperature and precipitation observations at 2-3 weather stations for each glacier, located 300 km or less from the glacier.  There will likely be some overlap so that one weather station will be tested for several glaciers.
4. Reconstruct missed observations of weather data using HyMet programs designed for this purpose 
5. Revise PTAA computer program to incorporate selected glaciers, AA profiles and weather data

Project Goals

1. Calibrate the PTAA model for each glacier to find the minimum calibration error and optimum values for the mass balance coefficients
2. Apply the optimum coefficients to produce daily mass balance results for the period of record to determine average accumulation, ablation, mass balance and runoff as a function of elevation, equilibrium line elevations, daily lapse rates, historical annual balances and other variables for the period of record. Tabulate and organize each variable into a file.
3. Relate mass balances to global temperature anomalies of maximum and minimum temperatures compiled by the Hadley Climate Center, and to the changes in concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide measured at Mauna Loa to determine the cause of the recent and widespread glacier decline.
4. Develop a simplified, dynamic glacier model using the mass balance results that demonstrates how the climate, glacier mass balance, glacier surface configuration (AA profiles), glacier flow and bed erosion are interrelated.

Estimated time and labor to complete

Two or three experienced people working full time could complete the Initial Tasks in 10-12 months.  The tasks identified in the Project Goals would also require another 10-12 months without number 4, which could require another year or more.  

Jeffery

I saw your letter to your doctor on Cryolist regarding global warming skepticism and thought this project would be of interest.  There has been a considerable amount of response and interest in collaboration but no offers of financial support.  I plan to submit a proposal to NSF within the next few weeks. 

I also read your article about Himalayan glaciers.  So far 8 people who have been involved in Himalayan glaciology responded to the above email and I am hopeful that there will be several glaciers from that region included in this study.  There may even be a way estimating debris-cover on these glaciers with the PTAA model.

My colleague, Birbal Rana, is from Nepal and has worked with several glacier-damned lakes that now pose a threat due to glacier retreat.

Regards

Wendell

Wendell Tangborn
HyMet
13629 Burma Rd SW
Vashon Island, WA 98070
206 567 4077
hymet01 at gmail.com
www.hymet.com

-- 
-- 
Wendell Tangborn
HyMet
13629 Burma Rd SW
Vashon Island, WA 98070
206 567 4077
hymet01 at gmail.com
www.hymet.com

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