GLIMS Update: Press Release and GLIMS workshop agenda
Jeffrey S Kargel
jkargel at usgs.gov
Mon Aug 16 13:15:37 MDT 2004
Dear GLIMS colleagues,
Below you will find the penultimate draft of the GLIMS workshop agenda to
guide the Oslo meeting this week. Also, you will find a rough draft
(significant revisions expected) of a press release "feature article" that
will be put out this week through USGS regarding this meeting. If you have
time today, please review it and get back to me with any feedback. Please
send any comments about the press release to this address and also to
jeffreyskargel at hotmail.com. Please note that the GLIMS workshop will
feature a public forum, at which we expect media representatives to be in
attendance. In addition, the institutional host of our workshop, the
Norwegian Water Resources & Energy Directorate, will be issuing a separate
but coordinated press release. Finally, you may wish to consider issuing
your own press release or otherwise interacting with the public media
regarding glaciers and any particular topic of interest to you. We at USGS
are hoping that there can be significant media coverage of glaciers as a
dynamic part of our planet, and one whose changes have impacts on the
general populations of many countries. As always, the public needs to be
informed about science issues, and we as academicians and public servants
need to redouble our efforts at communicating our science to our fellow
researchers in other fields and to the general public we serve.
I look forward to seeing some of you in Oslo for the workshop and the IGS
Symposium later this week and next week.
Sincerely,
Jeff Kargel
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
Energy conservation isn't just "green" and future-oriented, it's for
economic prosperity, national/global security, and global peace.
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
Dr. Jeffrey S. Kargel
U.S. Geological Survey
2255 N. Gemini Dr.
Flagstaff, AZ 86001
U.S.A.
Telephone (+1) (928) 556-7034
Fax (+1) (928) 556-7014
Email: jkargel at usgs.gov
Home email: jkargel at flaglink.com
Home phone: (+1)(928) 527-4196
----- Forwarded by Jeffrey S Kargel/GD/USGS/DOI on 08/16/04 12:00 PM -----
Jeffrey S Kargel
To: Michael P. Bishop <bishop at data.dsc.unomaha.edu>, Fiona Cawkwell
08/16/04 11:36 AM <fiona.cawkwell at ualberta.ca>, Chad Dick <chad at npolar.no>, Rune Engeset <rune.engeset at nve.no>,
Jane Ferrigno <glacier438 at erols.com>, Jon Ove Methlie Hagen <j.o.m.hagen at geo.uio.no>, Gordon
Hamilton <gordon.hamilton at maine.edu>, Andreas Kaab <kaeaeb at geo.unizh.ch>, Jeff Kargel
(jkargel at usgs.gov>, Max Koenig <max.koenig at npolar.no>,
cc: <rue at nve.no>, jkargel at flaglink.com, jeffreyskargel at hotmail.com
Subject: GLIMS Update: Final details for GLIMS workshop
GLIMS WORKSHOP AGENDA
Friday 20 August, 2004. Meeting at NVE, map attached.
08:00-08:25 Registration/welcome
08:25-08:30 Convene (Jeff Kargel)
08:30-08:50 Roger Wheate-GLIMS/Canadian Cordillera (TM and
ETM+ analysis)
08:50-09:10 Fiona Cawkwell-GLIMS/Arctic Canada
09:10-09:30 Michael P. Bishop and John F. Shroder-Alpine Glaciation and
Glacierization in
the Hindu Kush and Karakoram Himalaya
09:30-10:00 Break (fruit, coffee, tea)
10:00-10:20 John F. Shroder and Michael P. Bishop: Glacier Change Detection
in the Hindu Kush
and Western Himalaya using Multi-Sensor Satellite Imagery
10:20-10:40 Rune Engeset-GLIMS/Norway mainland
10:40-10:55 Frank Paul-Spatial variability of glacier changes in the Alps
(15 MINUTES REQUESTED)
10:55-11:15 Gordon Hamilton and Bill Sneed-GLIMS/Polar
Glaciological Applications of ASTER Imagery.
11:15-11:35-Andreas K??b-- Assessment of glacier hazards and management of
glacier
disasters: the ASTER contribution, 20 MINUTES
11:35-11:45 Jeff Kargel-Peruvian glacier hazards: real and
imagined-10 minutes.
11:45-11:55-Frank Paul-Spatial variability of glacier changes in the Alps
(15 MINUTES)
11:55-12:05-Andreas K??b or Frank Paul (on behalf of Wilfried
Haeberli)-Glacier Length Changes in
Strategies of Global Climate-Related Glacier Monitoring (10 MINUTES)
12:05-13:00 Lunch
13:00-13:15 Renaud Mathieu- (1) The Glacier Inventory and Monitoring
End-Of-Summer-Snowline in New
Zealand. 15 MINUTES REQUESTED
13:15-13:30 Max Koenig- A method for mass balance monitoring with SAR on
Svalbard. 15 MINUTES REQUESTED
13:30-13:55- Bruce Raup-Round-robin test results with
extended discussion-25 minutes.
13:55-14:00 Move to cantina for public forum
14:00-15:00 Public forum, media and general public invited
14:00-14:04- Andreas Kaab, introduce the forum topic/purpose, speakers,
present outline
14:04-14:08- Jon Ove Hagen, Announce Symposium on Arctic Glaciology
14:08-14:21- Rune Engeset, Norway glaciers
14:21-14:34- Gordon Hamilton, Polar glaciers
14:34-14:47- Jeff Kargel, Human impacts of glacier change
14:47-15:00- Questions/answers for the group (Andreas Kaab presiding)
15:00-15:30 Break, media invited, continue informal Q/A (coffee, tea,
pastries)
15:30-15:50 Bruce Raup-Database demo and new Mapserver
interface-20 minutes.
15:50-16:05 Bruce Raup-Frank Rau's Glacier Classification
Manual: should we extend WGMS classification system as Frank
suggests? (see Bruce Raup's email message from 18 July
2004)-15 minutes.
16:05-16:25 Jane Ferrigno- Satellite Image Atlas and
glacier-change studies. 20 minutes.
16:25-16:45 Chad Dick-Climate and Cryosphere (CliC). See
also http://www.pages.unibe.ch/calendar/2005/clic.html
16:45-17:10 Jeff Kargel: RSE special issue journal article, GLIMS
book planning, and future meetings-25 minutes.
17:10-17:20 Reynaud Mathieu: GLIMS meeting planning for New
Zealand 2005-10 minutes.
17:20-17:25- Bruce Raup, with Saturday technology session
meeting details
17:25-17:30- Jeff Kargel- Thank you, with dinner details
Saturday 21 August 2004. To take place at Hotel Rainbow Norrona.
09:00-12:00 Optional hands-on technology session (Bruce
Raup, leader). Topics will include: Round-robin test
results and how to converge on our modus operandi, and
database/GLIMSView demo and mapserver.
Human Impacts of Rapid Glacier Responses to Global Climate Change
A multinational consortium of scientists is meeting this week in Oslo,
Norway, to discuss glacier responses to global climate change and other
non-climate-related forcings. There is general agreement within the group,
called GLIMS (Global Land Ice Measurements from Space), that glaciers in
most parts of the world are continuing a fast-paced retreat phase and that
global climate changes are the underlying forcing factor. The practical
impacts are profound and relate directly to people in many countries.
However, the patterns of global climate change and glacier responses are
complex and variable from region to region. The GLIMS meeting is being
held
to recognize the complexities and arrive at a better understanding of why
regional differences in glacier responses exist. A public forum on
recent
GLIMS results and future directions will be held in Oslo from 2-3 PM on
August 20 at Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, Middelthuns
gate 29, Oslo. Three speakers will look at glacier changes and impacts
occurring in: (1) Norway (Rune Engeset, Norwegian Water Resources and
Energy
Directorate), (2) both polar regions (Gordon Hamilton, University of
Maine),
and around the world (Jeffrey S. Kargel, U.S. Geological Survey, Flagstaff,
Arizona). The International Glaciological Society (IGS) will be holding a
separate but related meeting, in Geilo, Norway, next week to discuss
specifically the issue of glaciers in the Arctic, where many ice caps are
retreating and where complex and rapid changes are occurring to the
Greenland Ice Sheet.
The GLIMS consortium is organized and led by the U.S. Geological Survey,
funded through NASA and other funding and research agencies around the
world, and is being carried out in direct cooperation with the Zurich-based
World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS). GLIMS is using primarily
satellite-based cameras, notably ASTER (a Japanese camera flying aboard an
America satellite, Terra) to track changes to the world's glaciers. In
addition, traditional field-based methods of glacier monitoring are being
used to validate the satellite image analysis and to extend the satellite
studies to include measurements that can only be made from the ground.
While ASTER is providing what amounts to a snapshot of the world's glaciers
in the early 21st century, topographic maps, air photos, field glaciology
data, and older satellite images provide a key storehouse of information
allowing a long time series of glacier changes to be amassed in many
regions
of the world.
Most scientists in the consortium are reporting evidence for retreat or
vertical downwasting and loss of ice mass in most glaciers within their
regions of study. Glaciers in the United States, in Himalayan nations, the
European Alps, and many other regions are undergoing rapid and even
accelerating decay. The collapse or partial collapse of several ice
shelves
and acceleration of land-based glaciers in Antarctica and Greenland point
out complex trigger mechanisms that first induce ice shelves to break apart
and then cause the ice that once fed those ice shelves to drain more
rapidly. Enhanced rates of melting are the underlying cause. There are
other regions, notably Norway, where the patterns are more complex: some
glaciers have been advancing while others have been retreating. Some
tidewater glaciers in Alaska are experiencing dramatic fluctuations,
including some glaciers that have made news-worthy advances, though the
great majority continue a pattern of decay that has characterized the last
century. Land-terminating surging glaciers are also common in some
regions,
such as in Alaska and Svalbard (Arctic Ocean); these complicate the
analysis
of the global record of glacier changes. The cases of surging, advancing,
or stable glaciers have to be examined case by case for special mechanisms
that explain their advance in a general global environment where the great
majority of glaciers are shrinking. In some cases, as in Norway, the
advancing or stable glaciers are made comparatively healthy because of
recent increases in the supply of moisture from the ocean, and consequently
larger than normal amounts of snow accumulation. In coastal regions of
Scandinavia this effect has balanced the effect of increased mean
temperatures. Glaciers in the interior of Scandinavia are more affected by
the recent high summer temperatures and the effects of increased melt.
Since
2001, very high mass losses have been observed. Climate scenarios for the
region suggest increasingly large net loss of ice and thus further glacier
retreat. The Norway anomaly is thus consistent with global climate models
that consider various scenarios for future increases in greenhouse gases
due
to human activities and natural processes. These same climate models
highlight certain regions where the next few decades will see both sharp
increases in temperature and decreasing or stable rates of precipitation,
thus guaranteeing exceptionally rapid decay of their glaciers. Chile
(north
of Patagonia) and Afghanistan and other parts of central Asia are two such
areas.
These latest findings extend observations made over the decades by
glaciologists around the world and extend the results compiled in sources
such as the USGS series Satellite Image Atlas of the World and the
Zurich-based World Glacier Monitoring Service's series of Glacier Mass
Balance Bulletins. The GLIMS data, using an evolution of measurement
parameters established by WGMS, are being compiled and assessed through the
National Snow and Ice Data Center (Boulder, Colorado, USA), while
individual
regional analyses are being conducted by individual scientists and through
the global GLIMS consortium involving over 25 countries. GLIMS, the USGS
Cryosphere program, and the WGMS are operating within a framework
established by the Global Terrestrial Observing System's (GTOS)
Glacier-Network (GTN-G), established to support the goal of achieving
sustainable development. GLIMS employs satellite and supporting ground
observations to expand so-named "tier-5" coverage within the terrestrial
observing system's strategy. The first formal and extensive printed
compendium of GLIMS results will be presented in a future book being
organized at the GLIMS meeting in Oslo.
The practical impacts of changing glaciers on water supplies, agricultural
production, human well being, political stability, and natural ecosystems
are, like the climate forcings, very complex and regionally varied; they
are
made even more complex by the uneven distribution of population and wealth,
national borders and international and ethnic cultural differences, and by
regional armed conflicts. Already, there have been significant impacts on
human activity and natural ecosystems in areas affected by the last century
of glacier change. For the following discussion, the IPCC SRES A2 model is
used as a middle-estimate baseline climate model, though most other models
give qualitatively similar patterns.
HYDROPOWER. Looking toward the next 50-100 years, climate projections
reported by the IPCC, coupled with recent regional changes in glaciers,
give
a good idea of where we can expect rapid changes in glacier ice mass and
dynamics. In some regions, such as Norway and Iceland, increasing
precipitation and rising glacier meltwater production will drive increasing
potential for hydropower generation at least for the next 50 years;
however,
a very recent sudden trend toward glacier recession in Norway suggests that
glaciers might become less significant as a component source of water
runoff, such that seasonality of runoff may increase. IPCC climate
projections for some other regions, such as the European Alps and the Andes
in Peru, Bolivia, and Chile north of Patagonia, disappearing glaciers might
contribute to a reduction of hydropower potential and force an increasing
reliance on artificial reservoirs to supply water to urban centers and
agricultural lands.
REGIONAL POLITICAL STABILITY AND GLOBAL SECURITY. IPCC projections for
Central Asia, already desperately dependent on glacier meltwater, will see
most glacier sources of economic viability largely disappear, thus
furthering a regional drought that already has been linked to agricultural
failure and two decades of unstable political dynamics in Afghanistan.
The
IPCC climate projections and recent trends in glaciation suggest that
Kashmir, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, and even Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan will
suffer increasing water deprivation as precipitation falls, temperatures
rise, and glaciers tend to disappear gradually over the 21st century.
Thus,
regional and global security issues will be linked increasingly to glacier
mass balance and anthropogenic/natural climate change in Central Asia. In
regions farther east in Asia, the critical role of the changing monsoon
must
be understood as a cause of accumulation of glaciers in the eastern and
central Himalaya, which could become a principle water source for Central
Asia, supplementing the glaciated mountains of Kyrgyzstan as a source of
water for parched nations such as Uzbekistan. Regional engineering water
works, if they can be designed to avoid the environmental crises such as
that which has plagued the Aral Sea drainage basin since the Soviet era,
may
be required to deal with increasingly arid conditions and a change of
seasonality of water availability caused by melting and gradual
disappearance of glaciers from Central Asia. However the hydrological
problems will be solved in Central Asia and elsewhere, it will be necessary
to understand the roles of natural and anthropogenic climate change on
glacier mass balance if regional water issues are to be dealt with and
progress and peace are to replace political instability that may reasonably
be predicted in the absence of knowledge and planning.
ECOSYSTEMS. In many mountainous arid regions, such as western China, Peru,
and the "stans," receding alpine glaciers will cause a deterioration of
desert riparian ecosystems and agriculture in glacier-watered valleys. In
more humid alpine regions, such as in Alaska and parts of the Himalaya,
receding glaciers will open new alpine valleys, passes, and peaks for
expansion of adjacent ecosystems or human exploitation. In presently
heavily glaciated mountains, opening of key mountain passes and clearing of
ice from valleys may cause increasing genetic integration of currently
isolated populations of land-lumbering mammals.
GLACIER HAZARDS. The general wastage of glaciers in the Himalaya, European
Alps, Andes, Caucasus, Cascades, and Alaskan mountain ranges will cause
shifting patterns of glacier hazards due to glacier lake outburst floods,
ice avalanches, volcanic lahars, and ice damming of rivers.
(1) GLOFs: The types of unstable moraine-dammed lakes and
supraglacial lakes-- and the attendant glacier lake outburst flood (GLOF)
hazards-- that are so characteristic in Bhutan and Nepal will likely become
more common among wasting valley glaciers of Tajikistan, Pakistan, Indian
and Pakistani sectors of Kashmir, and Kyrgyzstan. A characteristic Alaskan
style of ice marginal lake formed where tributary glaciers detach from main
trunk glaciers will likely also become common throughout the Himalaya and
the Tien Shan, thus presenting a relatively new type of GLOF hazard in
those
regions. In Alaska, ice marginal and supraglacial and moraine-dammed lakes
will continue to be a major hazard, but some lakes will disappear and other
develop as glaciers continue a long trend of retreat and wasting. In some
regions, such as Peru and the European Alps, where once-mighty glaciers
have
already wasted to small remnants, lingering GLOF hazards will progressively
diminish and disappear.
(2) SURGES. Surging glaciers will remain common in Alaska, but the
maximum extent of their surge fronts, and hence the infrastructural threat
posed by these glaciers will tend to recede as the glaciers themselves lose
mass over the long term. However, development will have to take into
strict
account the evolving hazards posed by surge-type glaciers.
(3) ICE-DAMMED RIVERS. Another type of glacier hazard-- the
glacier-dammed river-- is generally becoming less widespread and less
severe
around most of the world, wherever glaciers are receding. However, there
remain very substantial dangers of this happening, for instance near Namche
Barwa (7782m, Tibetan Himalaya), which has a glacier today that nearly dams
the Yarlong Tsangpo River. In the recent past (1250 yr) this river has
been
dammed deeply two or more times by glaciers; in 750 AD it made a dam 600 ft
high. Because this mountain is in the zone of monsoonal influence, it is
possible that despite rising temperatures, increasing snow accumulation may
cause the re-advance and redamming of the river. The slim but real
potential
still exists whereby the Delta River in Alaska could be dammed by glacier
surges, thus flooding the Alyeska Pipeline and Richardson Highway. The
Copper River, Alaska, also could be dammed by glacial re-advances; however
the actual likelihood of this every happening again is remote because the
glaciers are losing mass at this time and probably will continue to do so.
(4) ICE AND GLACIER DEBRIS AVALANCHES. Another type of glacier hazard
includes the destabilization of ice-cored moraines and thawing of the beds
of hanging glaciers, which can cause ice and debris avalanches, such as
that
which killed over 100 people in the Russian Caucasus in 2002. This type of
hazard will increase dramatically in some regions, as glacier downwasting
removes support for high moraines, as climate warming thaws ice cementing
these moraines, and as warming thaws and loosens hanging glacier ice from
steeply sloping mountain bedrock.
(5) LAHARS. The threat of lahars due to volcano-glacier interactions
may diminish as the ice load melts and reduces the amount of ice available.
However, this very unloading process potentially can induce volcanic
eruptions. The hazard of lahars threat does not disappear until glaciers
are completely eliminated from a volcano's summit and flanks.
SEALEVEL. Outstanding questions remain about ice sheet mass balance in
Greenland and Antarctica, but the latest indications are that the balance
might have recently shifted to negative from a state of near balance; it
is
something that will be watched very closely by the global glaciological
community. Small ice caps and subpolar glaciers contribute significantly
to
sea level rise and will continue to do so. Sealevel rise in the 21st
century is projected to be about 0.11 to 0.77 m (4 to 30 inches) and will
include a substantial component due to melting land ice. Sea level rise
toward the upper end of this scale will pose serious issues for coastal
cities, barrier islands, deltaic agriculture, and coastal wetlands.
SUMMARY. Glacier changes include both beneficial and deleterious effects
for
humans. The benefits and losses are disparate around the globe. It is
difficult to integrate and quantify the net effect on human welfare and
global planetary health, but this integration is an important objective for
the future. However, judged from fundamentals, it would seem that any
massive, rapid changes in the Earth system, such as that now affecting the
cryosphere, on the whole are destabilizing to natural ecosystems and human
economies and political structures. While the Earth system tends to be
resilient on the long term, especially for slow changes, such resiliency
and
rebound often occurs at the terrible expense of entire species. Humans
should not assume that it will be the Earth's other species, or any
particular group of other nations, that will pay the entire price of
unintended consequences of glacier change caused by climate changes and of
human activities that are accelerating those changes.
CONTACTS FOR THIS PRESS RELEASE:
Global changes:
Dr. Jeffrey S. Kargel, U.S. Geological Survey GLIMS project
coordination,
Flagstaff, AZ86001, USA, email1: jkargel at usgs.gov,
email2:jeffreyskargel at hotmail.com, telephone1: +1 (928) 556-7034,
telephone2: +1 (928) 527-4196, cell phone: +1 (928) 853-7795.
Dr. Richard S. Williams, U.S. Geological Survey Cryosphere Program
manager, CONTACT INFO HERE
Dr. Bruce Molnia (Glaciers in Alaska), CONTACT INFO HERE
For additional expert assistance:
Dr. Alan Gillespie
W. M. Keck Remote Sensing Lab
Earth & Space Sciences 35-1310
University of Washington
Seattle, WA 98195-1310
206 685 8265
206 685 2379 fax
Dr. Andreas Kaab,
University of Zurich
Zurich, Switzerland
email: kaeaeb at geo.unizh.ch
Dr. Rune Engeset, Research Scientist. Norwegian Water Resources and Energy
Directorate. Box 5091 Maj., N-0301 Oslo, Norway. E-mail: rue at nve.no.
Telephone: +47 2295 9261. Cell phone: +47 99038868.
Internet resources:
GLIMS website: http://www.glims.org
Recent GLIMS powerpoint presentation: www.glims.org/Publications/
2004-March_ASTER-ScienceTeamPasadena/2004March-ASTER_SciTmPasadena-2.pdf
Glacier Network website: http://www.fao.org/gtos/gt-netGLA.html
WGMS site: http://www.geo.unizh.ch/wgms/index.html
Glacier Hazards website: http://www.geo.unizh.ch/gaphaz/home.html
USGS Cryosphere site:
http://geochange.er.usgs.gov/pub/poster/glacier.html
USGS Satellite Image Atlas site: http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs133-99/
National Snow and Ice Data Center: http://nsidc.org/
Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate: http://www.nve.no
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: http://www.ipcc.ch/
Global climate change resources:
J.T. Houghton et al. (Editors), Climate Change 2001: The Scientific
Basis, Published for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
Cambridge University Press, 2001.
Supporting graphics (one page each, to be linked through GLIMS website):
Figure 1: Global map showing locations of collaborating GLIMS
institutions
Figure 2. A century of glacier retreat in the Chugach Mountains, Alaska
Figure 3. Vertically wasting, but stably positioned glaciers in the
Himalaya
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