2020 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO)

An Activity of the Sea Ice Prediction Network—Phase 2 (SIPN2)

Dear Community Members, Your continued participation in the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) is always much appreciated and is especially valued this year during the COVID-19-related disruptions to both personal and professional life. The SIO organizers extend our wishes for your good health and well-being.

Submission Guidelines:

  1. Please use the form below to enter your information for the core requirements.
    Required responses are indicated with an asterisk* — these include responses to Sections 1-6. Response to question 7 is required if sea-ice concentration or sea-ice thickness are used. Response to Section 8 questions a), b), and c) are optional, but answers are encouraged.
    Be sure to hit SUBMIT at the bottom of form to complete your submission.
  2. In addition, we encourage you to submit related files such as:
    • A more detailed Outlook report, including discussions of uncertainties/probabilities, including any relevant figures, imagery, and references.
    • Regional Outlooks.
    • Informal contributions.
  3. We strongly encourage all participants whose methods provide information at the local scale to provide full spatial fields (i.e., fields with time and/or ensemble dimensions in addition to latitude/longitude) via the SIPN Data Portal (atmos.uw.edu/sipn/). Spatial field submissions are invited for:
    • Sea ice probability, first ice-free day, sea ice concentration, and sea ice thickness.
    • Dynamical model contributors to include initial conditions, particularly sea ice concentration and sea ice thickness or ice thickness distribution, with the date of initialization documented.

Forecasts for sea-ice advance dates (IAD) will be calculated from the full spatial fields of sea ice concentration that extend through the ice-advance seasons as submitted via the SIPN Data Portal. Or, contributors can submit the IAD fields directly. (See further details below under “Full Field of Sea Ice Forecasts Submission to SIPN Data Portal”)

Note: For the August report, we will not accept submissions for the September 2020 80% sea ice concentration contour in Fram Strait because the MOSAiC cruise evacuated the floe on 29 July 2020 and this information is no longer needed.

To submit full spatial fields, contact Ed Blanchard (ed@atmos.uw.edu) to get the password for ftp.

For more information, see the SIPN Data Portal. To see examples and definitions of the sea ice probability, first ice-free day and date of ice advance metrics, see Metrics for the Sea Ice Outlook.

Additional information is at www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook.

Questions, including how to submit contributions that may not fit into the monthly report format, may be directed to Betsy Turner-Bogren, ARCUS (betsy@arcus.org).

An automatically generated reply message, to confirm receipt of your contribution, will be sent to your email.

Your e-mail.
Section 1
Section 2
Section 3
Contributor Name(s)
Note: We will use no more than 30 characters to label your contribution in the report (e.g., ARCUS Group [Wiggins, et al.]).
Section 4
We are again accepting both pan-Arctic and pan-Antarctic sea ice extent (either one or both) of the September monthly mean. As in recent years, we are also collecting Alaskan regional sea ice extent. To be consistent with the validating sea ice extent index from NSIDC, if possible, please first compute the average sea ice concentration for the month and then compute the extent as the sum of cell areas > 15%.
Your answer.
Your answer.
Your answer.

Note: Optional submissions for Fram Strait will be accepted.
For those interested, we invite submission of projections of the September 2020 80% sea ice concentration for Fram Strait, which offers an opportunity to investigate predictability in the region where the MOSAiC cruise is expected at that time. These forecasts can be spatial field forecasts of the region, or you can submit the pan-Arctic field of the September 2020 80% sea ice concentration contour. These forecasts can be submitted via the SIPN Data Portal.

Section 5
Use 300 words or less.
Section 6
Use 300 words or less.
Section 7
Note: Include source (e.g., which data center), name (algorithm), DOI and/or data set website, and date (e.g., “NSIDC NASA Team, https://nsidc.org/data/nsidc-0081, https://doi.org/10.5067/U8C09DWVX9LM.”)

The rest of the questions are optional but your answers are encouraged. Be sure to hit SUBMIT at the bottom.

Section 8

If available from your method.

a) Uncertainty/probability estimates:
Your answer, if applicable.
Your answer, if applicable.
Your answer, if applicable.
Your answer.
Includes discussions of uncertainties/probabilities, any relevant figures, imagery, and references.
Files must be less than 20 MB.
Allowed file types: pdf.