Getting beneath the ice

Researchers can measure ice thickness by drilling holes in the sea ice. But the method is not a practical way to measure thickness over the millions of square miles of Arctic sea ice. Image courtesy of Martin Hartley

NSIDC reports ice extent, a two-dimensional measure of the Arctic Ocean’s ice cover. But sea ice extent tells only part of the story: sea ice is not all flat like a sheet of paper. While freshly formed ice might not be much thicker than a few sheets of paper, the oldest, thickest ice in the Arctic can be more than 15 feet thick—as thick as a one-story house. Scientists want to know not just how far the ice extends, but also how deep and thick it is, because thinner ice is more vulnerable to summer melt. Continue reading

Summer predictions for Arctic sea ice

graph of estimates from the SEARCH sea ice outlook

Last week, an international group of researchers released their best estimates for Arctic sea ice extent over the summer melt season. The scientists are compiling their estimates so that they can better predict changes in Arctic sea ice. Credit: SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook

Average Arctic sea ice extent this May was the third lowest in the satellite record. Does that mean that ice extent will reach a new record low this summer? Or will it recover somewhat over recent years?

Last week sea ice scientists from around the world shared their best answers to those questions, in the June report of the Sea Ice Outlook. For the report, the researchers used a variety of methods to predict how sea ice will behave this summer, such as statistical methods or computer models. Continue reading