September 2012 was a record-setting month for both of Earth’s poles, but for different reasons: sea ice in the Arctic fell to a record low minimum extent after a summer of melting while Antarctic sea ice froze to a record high extent during the South Pole winter. Is record Antarctic sea ice canceling out the losses in Arctic ice? And does the record in the south mean that Antarctica is not warming? Continue reading
Satellite observations since 1979 show that sea ice melted to its lowest extent in the satellite record, during August 2012 . As of this post date, the ice continues to melt, with two to three weeks left before the days shorten enough for the ice extent to begin to expand through the winter. Readers often write to us asking what such records really mean. How far from normal is this year’s record low, and how do scientists decide what is normal? Continue reading
As people watch the decline of Arctic sea ice, the most obvious sign of climate warming in that region, scientists are noting other signs of change, like methane seeping out of the ground as permafrost thaws and glaciers melt across the Arctic. Scientists suspected these methane seeps existed, but no one had measured how much methane was escaping—until recently. Continue reading
In summer months, icebreaking ships head north into the Arctic Ocean, tearing through the sea ice and leaving trails of open water in their wakes. Readers occasionally write in to ask us whether the trails left by these ships contribute to the melting of sea ice. Continue reading
In February, polar climate researchers gathered at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado to discuss the newest updates to models of the Earth’s climate system. The researchers are working together to create better models of the Arctic and Antarctic climates, which will feed into larger models of the whole Earth that help scientists understand how climate will change in the future. What goes into a climate model, and what can scientists learn from models that they cannot learn from observations?
What’s in a model?
Computer climate models are based on scientists’ understanding of Earth’s climate. The models use mathematical relationships to try to quantify the relationships between parts of the climate system. If you tweak one factor in climate, how does the simulated climate system respond? Models that bring many factors together help scientists learn how the climate system works, and let them run simulations on Earth’s climate. They also allow scientists to assess how climate may be affected by present and future changes in greenhouse gases and solar forcing, and how much of a role natural variability plays. Continue reading