Model Output From the 'Frost Index' Permafrost Model: Variations in Circumpolar Frozen Ground Conditions and Modeled Future Conditions  View Catalog Page Entry ID
ARCSS050
Summary
This data set contains permafrost distribution maps, active-layer thickness maps, and hazard-potential maps constructed using results from the 'frost index' permafrost model (Nelson and Outcalt, 1987) driven by modern climatic data and scenarios of climate change derived from three transient general circulation models (Greco et al., 1994). The permafrost maps show the distribution of permafrost in the Northern Hemisphere under modern climatic conditions and General Circulation Model (GCM) projections for 2050; the active-layer thickness maps show relative changes in the depth of seasonal thawing projected for 2050; and the hazard-potential maps are used as indices to evaluate potential environmental hazards associated with thaw settlement and thermokarst.
Geographic Coverage
Spatial Coordinates:
N: 83.5°
S: 56°
E: 180°
W: -180°
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Data Set Citation
Dataset Creator: Frederick E. Nelson, Oleg A. Anisimov, and Nikolay I. Shiklomanov
Dataset Title: Model Output From the 'Frost Index' Permafrost Model: Variations in Circumpolar Frozen Ground Conditions and Modeled Future Conditions
Dataset Release Date: 2001-09-01
Dataset Release Place: Boulder, Colorado USA
Dataset Publisher: NSIDC: National Snow and Ice Data Center
Online Resource: http://nsidc.org/data/arcss050.html
Temporal Coverage
Start Date: 2000-11-27
Stop Date: 2050-12-31
Location Keywords
- GEOGRAPHIC REGION ARCTIC
- GEOGRAPHIC REGION POLAR
Science Keywords
- Cryosphere Frozen Ground Active Layer
- Cryosphere Frozen Ground Permafrost
- Cryosphere Frozen Ground Soil Temperature
- Cryosphere Snow/Ice Frost
- Cryosphere Snow/Ice Permafrost
- Land Surface Frozen Ground Active Layer
- Land Surface Frozen Ground Permafrost
- Land Surface Frozen Ground Soil Temperature
- Land Surface Soils Permafrost
- Land Surface Soils Soil Temperature
- Terrestrial Hydrosphere Snow/Ice Frost
- Terrestrial Hydrosphere Snow/Ice Permafrost
Ancillary Keywords
- 2050
- Active Layer
- active-layer thickness
- ADCC
- ARCSS050
- Arctic
- Arctic System Science Data Coordination Center
- Circumpolar
- Department of Geography
- Frozen Ground
- Future Model Scenarios
- GCM
- General Circulation Models
- Global Circulation Models
- Hazard Index
- Hazard Potential
- Maps
- National Science Foundation
- NSF
- NSIDC
- OPP9612647
- OPP-9612647
- Permafrost
- Predictions
- Soil Temperature
- University of Delaware
- Climatology/Meteorology/Atmosphere
Platform
- GROUND-BASED OBSERVATIONS
Instrument
Project
- ARCSS/LAII/FLUX Arctic System Science/Land-Atmosphere-Ice Interaction/fluxes
Data Set Progress
complete
Data Center
National Snow and Ice Data Center
Data Center URL: http://nsidc.org
Data Center Personnel
Name: NSIDC User Services
Phone: 1 303 492-6199
Fax: 1 303 492-2468
Email: nsidc@nsidc.org
Contact Address:
- National Snow and Ice Data Center
- CIRES, 449 UCB
- University of Colorado
City: Boulder
Province or State: CO
Postal Code: 80309-0449
Country: USA
NSIDC Arctic System Science Data Coordination Center
Data Center URL: http://nsidc.org/arcss/
Data Center Personnel
Name: NSIDC ARCSS User Services
Phone: 1 303 492-6199
Fax: 1 303 492-2468
Email: nsidc@nsidc.org
Contact Address:
- National Snow and Ice Data Center
- CIRES, 449 UCB
- University of Colorado
City: Boulder
Province or State: CO
Postal Code: 80309-0449
Country: USA
NSIDC Frozen Ground Data Center
Data Center URL: http://nsidc.org/fgdc/
Data Center Personnel
Name: NSIDC FGDC User Services
Phone: 1 303 492-6199
Fax: 1 303 492-2468
Email: nsidc@nsidc.org
Contact Address:
- National Snow and Ice Data Center
- CIRES, 449 UCB
- University of Colorado
City: Boulder
Province or State: CO
Postal Code: 80309-0449
Country: USA
Distribution
Distribution Media: FTP
Distribution Size: 710 KB
Distribution Format: ASCII Text
Distribution Media: FTP
Distribution Size: 710 KB
Distribution Format: JPEG
Personnel
Frederick E. (Fritz) Nelson
Role: INVESTIGATOR
Email: fnelson@udel.edu
Contact Address:
- University of Delaware
- Department of Geography
City: Newark
Province or State: DE
Country: USA
Oleg Anisimov
Role: INVESTIGATOR
Phone: 7 812-323-35-17
Fax: 7 812-323-10-28
Email: oleg@oa7661.spb.ru
Contact Address:
- State Hydrological Institute
- V.O., 23
City: St. Petersburg
Postal Code: 199053
Country: Russia
Nikolay I. Shiklomanov
Role: INVESTIGATOR
Email: shiklom@udel.edu
Contact Address:
- University of Delaware
- Department of Geography
- University of Delaware
- 216 Pearson Hall
City: Newark
Province or State: DE
Postal Code: 19716
NSIDC User Services
Role: TECHNICAL CONTACT
Phone: 1 303 492-6199 x
Fax: 1 303 492-2468 x
Email: nsidc@nsidc.org
Contact Address:
- National Snow and Ice Data Center
- CIRES, 449 UCB
- University of Colorado
City: Boulder
Province or State: CO
Postal Code: 80309-0449
Country: USA
Related URL
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access to data and documentation
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Model Output from MBL-GEM III for Typical Tussock Tundra in the Kuparuk River Basin, Alaska, 1921-2100
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Model Output from the Marine Biology Laboratory General Ecosystem Model (MBL-GEM) for Toolik Lake, 1921-2144, and the Kuparuk River Basin, 1995
Reference
Anisimov, O. A. and Nelson, F. E., 1996: Permafrost distribution in the northern hemisphere under scenarios of climatic change. Global and Planetary Change, 14: 59-72.
Anisimov, O. A. and Nelson, F. E., 1997: Permafrost zonation and climate change: results from transient general circulation models. Climatic Change, 35: 241-258.
Anisimov O.A., and Poljakov V.Yu., 1999: Forecasting air temperature for the first quarter of the XXI century, Meteorology and Hydrology, 1999/2:. 25-31 (in Russian).
Anisimov, O. A. and Poljakov, V. Yu., 2000: Computerized geocryological information system for studies of climate-permafrost interaction in the Northern Hemisphere. Published in: Proceedings of the American Geophysical Union, Fall meeting, San Francisco, 8-12 December 2000. Anisimov, O. A., Shiklomanov, N. I., and Nelson, F. E., 1997: Effects of global warming on permafrost and active-layer thickness: results from transient general circulation models. Global and Planetary Change, 15: 61-77.
Brown, J., Ferrians, O. J. J., Heginbottom, J. A., and Melnikov, E. S., 1997: International Permafrost Association Circum-Arctic Map of Permafrost and Ground Ice Conditions. U.S. Geological Survey, Circum-Pacific Map Series, Map CP-45. Scale 1:10,000,000.
Greco, S., Moss, R. H., Viner, D., Jenne, R., and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, W. G. II., 1994: Climate Scenarios and Socioeconomic Projections for IPCC WG II Assessment. Washington, D.C.: Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network. 12 + maps, appendices, diskettes.
Leemans, R. and Cramer, W., 1991: The IIASA Database for Mean Monthly Values of Temperature, Precipitation, and Cloudiness on a Global Terrestrial Grid. Research Report RR-91-18, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, 62 pp.
Nelson, F.E., Anisimov, O.A., and Shiklomanov, N.I., 2001: Climate change and hazard zonation in the circum-Arctic permafrost regions. Natural Hazards, in press.
Nelson, F.E., Anisimov, O.A., and Shiklomanov, N.I., 2001: Subsidence risk from thawing permafrost. Nature 410: 889-890.
Nelson, F. E. and Outcalt, S. I., 1987: A computational method for prediction and regionalization of permafrost. Arctic and Alpine Research, 19: 279-288.
Scripter, M. W., 1970: Nested means map classes for statistical maps. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 60: 385-393.
Staub, B. and Rosenzweig, C., 1987: Global Gridded Data Sets of Soil Type, Soil Texture, Surface Slope and Other Properties. Boulder, CO: National Center for Atmospheric Research. http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/seg/eco/cdroms/ged_iia/datasets/a11/sr.htm#top
Metadata Name and Version
Metadata Name: CEOS IDN DIF
Metadata Version: 9.7
Creation and Review Dates
DIF Creation Date: 2001-09-01
Last DIF Revision Date: 2012-05-24
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